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Every season there are NFL players who are taken excessively high in fantasy football drafts only because they are household names. Each season, we identify a list of 10 players that tend to go a lot higher than their fantasy production warrants.

Being on this list does not mean we think a player is bad for his NFL team, it just means we do not think he is a strong fantasy football option.

Many players do things that help teams win games that do not show up in the box score. It is possible to be a very good football player that does not score well in fantasy football.

 

All 2009 fantasy rankings for this article are from www.profootballreference.com.

 

1. Donovan McNabb (Washington Redskins) – I cannot believe how many people still talk about him as a top-tier fantasy quarterback. The last three years he has finished 12^th, 7^th and 11^th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He is a sure bet to miss at least two games due to injuries. He has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season in his career. He has not thrown for 25 touchdowns in a single season since 2004. The last five years seasons he has failed to rush for more than 250 yards and the last time he had more than two rushing touchdowns in a season was 2006. He just is not the same player he was from 2000 to 2004 when he finished in the top five fantasy quarterbacks three times. Now he is going to a situation in Washington where he has an inferior offensive line to Philadelphia, aging running backs and his best receiver is Santana Moss, not DeSean Jackson. If McNabb finishes higher than 15^th in fantasy points, I would be surprised. He is a big name, but there will be plenty of lesser-known quarterbacks that will finish higher in the fantasy rankings than McNabb. I can see McNabb being taken in the fourth to fifth round; he probably should not go off the board until the eighth or ninth round. He is no better than a solid No. 2 quarterback in 10-team leagues, and certainly is not going to have numbers that will separate him from some of the lower ranked quarterbacks.

 

2. Randy Moss (New England Patriots) – I still see articles and rankings that talk about him as a top three receiver. He did finish second among fantasy receivers in 2009, but you have to look at how those numbers were accumulated. From Week 10 forward he never had more than five receptions or 75-yards in a single game. He had five touchdowns, but three of them came in the Jacksonville game, a team that ranked 26^th in touchdown passes allowed. He played terrible the second half of the season and at 33-years old, he cannot just be penciled in as an elite fantasy player. He also is going to be without WR Wes Welker, possibly until Thanksgiving. It is just a bad idea to assume the second half of the season was nothing to be worried about and I think that if you take Randy Moss in the top of the second round, you will be disappointed.

 

Here is what you have to understand about elite receivers. The last three years there have been 23, 22 and 23 1,000-yard receivers. There have been only 11, seven and nine which have scored 10 plus touchdowns. Receivers that you want to take in the second round are the ones that do both. Those players separate themselves from the rest of the pack and make it worthwhile to select a receiver that high in the draft. If they do not do both, you are basically taking a player in the second round that you can take in the fourth or fifth round. I still expect Moss to finish near the top ten, but I expect him to be bunched up with a bunch of other receivers, because I do think he will have 13 touchdown receptions in 2010. You do not want to build your receiving core around him; I do not see him as a player capable of doing that anymore. He will not be anywhere close to the top of the rankings with Texans WR Andre Johnson and Colts WR Reggie Wayne, even though a lot of people will draft him in a similar spot.

 

3. LaDainian Tomlinson (New York Jets) – He is talking that he is healthy and in good enough shape to win the job from Shonn Greene, something I find difficult to believe at 31-years old. Let us assume he receives 130 carries and rushes for 600-yards and catches 40 or 50 passes for another 300 to 400-yards. Let us also assume he scores five to eight touchdowns. It is going to put him only 30^th among fantasy running backs. Seattle Seahawks RB Justin Forsett had very similar numbers to what I gave in the example and he finished 34^th among backs as a player that was probably not drafted in many leagues. I can guarantee inexperienced Fantasy Owners are going to take LT in the seventh or eighth round and think they got a steal with the big name and past seasons at the top of the fantasy football scoring chart. He may very well help put the Jets in the Super Bowl, but I cannot see him putting a fantasy owner in a championship game. I think he has value after the 12^th round as a handcuff to Greene or as a fourth running back, but good luck having a player with that name recognition lasting that long.

 

4. Brandon Jacobs (New York Giants) – Jacobs had a big season in 2008 rushing for 1,089 yards and scoring 15 touchdowns, which made him rank 12^th in fantasy football scoring among running backs. He crashed and burned last year with 835 yards and five rushing touchdowns, which was terrible for a second round pick. He finished 30^th among fantasy backs. He is 27-years old, plays in New York and has been in a Super Bowl; I think some people are going to select him in the fourth or fifth round thinking he will have a rebound year. I just do not see it, even though he has only 779 career rushing attempts, I think Ahmad Bradshaw is going to see even more time in 2010 and Bradshaw actually outscored Jacobs in 2009 on 61 less carries. People that take Jacobs based on his name are going to be saddened when he has a down year for a second year in a row and Bradshaw leads Giants backs in fantasy points scored for a second straight year.

 

5. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals) – Palmer was a fixture in starting lineups from 2005 to 2007 finishing first in scoring in 2005, fourth in 2006 and ninth in 2007. He suffered an injury-plagued season in 2008 and in 2009 ranked just 18^th among quarterbacks, throwing for only 3,094 yards and 21 touchdowns, with 13 interceptions with a QB rating of 83.6. Players that finished higher than he did in 2009 included Washington Redskins QB Jason Campbell (14^th), Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard (15^th) and Denver Broncos QB Kyle Orton (16^th). Campbell is not even with the Redskins anymore and the Broncos acquired both Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn to replace Orton. There is going to be excitement in Cincinnati with the additions of rookie TE Jermaine Gresham and free agent WR Antonio Bryant. Similar to McNabb, Palmer is not worth the pick that his name recognition seems to bring him; people will take him much earlier than after the eighth or ninth round, which is where his statistics warrant him being selected.

 

6. Ryan Matthews (San Diego Chargers) – People might be a little surprised to see that I have a rookie on my list, but I think he is being overrated because of the high scoring offense he is joining. I think there are many people that believe that the San Diego running game was undone by an old an aging Tomlinson and now that they have a young running back, we can expect a return to 2007 type numbers when the Chargers were seventh in rushing yards gained. Keep in mind that in 2009, nobody ran particularly well behind the Chargers offensive line. Tomlinson averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, but Sproles averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. That was just a year removed from averaging 5.4 yards per carry and well under his 5.1 career average entering the season.

 

I think there are a lot of offensive line problems in San Diego that have not been addressed in free agency or the draft and this notion that Matthews is going to go to San Diego and rush for 1,000 to 1,200 yards and seven to nine touchdowns is laughable to me. My prediction is that Matthews fails to crack the 1,000-yard mark this season as the Chargers rely on QB Philip Rivers and the passing game. I think Matthews finishes in the mid 20s, not the mid to high teens among fantasy running backs. If you take him in the first four rounds, I think you will be disappointed at his inconsistent production. The San Diego running game is very overrated; Tomlinson was not the only reason the Chargers ranked 31^st in rushing yards gained in 2009. Stay clear of Matthews as a high pick or number two back.

 

7. Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints) – I think most people would agree Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton was a bust in 2009. He played only 11 games and rushed for only 437 yards, caught 417 yards in passes and scored seven touchdowns. He ranked 33^rd among fantasy running backs. That should tell you something about Bush, he has ranked 36^th the last two years. He has the Heisman Trophy, was the second pick in the 2006 draft and is one of the most exciting players in the NFL in the open field. He has endorsements and dates the famous Kim Kardashian, which keeps him in the public eye. All of those things mean nothing in fantasy football; he puts up terrible statistics and is not a viable fantasy running back most weeks, unless you are in a PPR (Points per Reception) League. Keep in mind he had only 47 receptions or three more than Slaton did in 2009, I think people that talk about him as a great PPR back overrate him as well. He might be worth a late round pick now that Mike Bell is in Philadelphia, but like clockwork, someone will take him in the middle rounds thinking that a big name will yield big production. I would not bet on it, there are much better bargains to be had in 2010 in the middle rounds; don’t bet on this big name having a big year.

 

8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Seattle Seahawks) – We all remember the commercials. I select T.J. Whose Your Mama, CHAMPIONSHIP! He actually helped deliver in 2007, when he had a league leading 112 receptions for 1,143 yards and 12 touchdowns. That put him as the seventh best fantasy receiver. Since then, he has failed to record a 1,000-yard season and has scored seven touchdowns in two seasons. He ranked 31^st among fantasy receivers in both 2008 and 2009. I think he was an exciting player that put up some big numbers playing with QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco. That 2007 season put him on the map and landed him the huge contract in Seattle in 2009. At 33-years old, I do not think he is worth a middle round choice anymore. I would rather go with a young receiver that I think might breakout than with a guy that has been a below average number three fantasy receiver since 2007. I think his name recognition is going to have him taken a lot higher than his numbers say he should, Seattle has a new coach in Pete Carroll, an aging inconsistent quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck and an inexperienced quarterback waiting in the wings (Charlie Whitehurst). It all adds up to another average season.

 

9. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) – Witten is still a fantastic player, but the perception of him is that he is a tight end with wide receiver value, because of his 2007 season, when he had 96 receptions for 1,145 yards and scored seven touchdowns. That gave him the No. 1 tight end ranking and No. 7 among all tight ends and receivers. He just does not score enough touchdowns to rank in that type of company most years. This year he was eighth among tight ends, but scored only two touchdowns. He has ranked in the top 30 among all scorers only twice, 22^nd back in 2004 and 16^th in 2007. I like him as my starting tight end, but I do not think it is worth taking him in the fourth round as one of the top tight ends off the board. I say let someone else draft him first and go with a lesser known tight end like Green Bay Packers TE Jermichael Finley or Philadelphia Eagles TE Brent Celek. I think the production will be similar at a lot lower cost.

 

10. Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints) – He shocked us all when as a seventh round pick he finished his rookie season with 70 receptions for 1,038 yards and scored seven touchdowns. He followed that up with 98 receptions for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns, ranking eighth among fantasy receivers. I give him a pass for 2008, because he was injured, but in 2009 he finished with 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns, ranking 13^th among fantasy receivers. I think the expectation was that QB Drew Brees and Colston were going to form a tandem that would dominate fantasy football for years to come. The Saints have so many weapons and spread the ball so much, that he just never seems to put up the high numbers people hope for in a second round pick. He has the same issue as Moss, Colston is a very good player but he should not be any better than your No. 2 receiver this year. You can find similar numbers in the fourth or fifth round and build a deeper fantasy team; Colston will probably be gone by the end of the second or beginning of the third round.

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