The premise of this article looks at age of players at various positions and at what age you can typically expect a player to begin peaking, as well as what age you can expect players to decline. 

It is a very valuable tool for fantasy owners to be able to predict where to draft certain players.

Greg Alan wrote a very good article in 2009 called Fantasy Football GMs look at NFL Player Age. The link to that article is http://www.4for4.com/draft_board/fantasy_football_analysis.php?id=2304.

Most quarterbacks will rarely peak before 25-years old and a number of them will have their best statistical season after their 30^th birthday.  My general rule is that you rarely want to draft a quarterback that has less than three years of NFL experience (not starts, but service) and that you rarely want to go with quarterbacks that are older than 35-years old, unless it is a Brett Favre situation where the players seems to defy his age on a consistent basis.  That 25 to 35 year old range seems to be the range where the biggest fantasy seasons come from.

Running backs on the other hand can begin producing as rookies.  I cannot even begin to count the number of rookies that had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie, it happens with extreme regularity.  If you look at Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson, he led fantasy football in scoring at the age of 24.  Young running backs can put up huge numbers, but by age 30, they are usually looking for their pension checks.  Another barometer I look for is career carries, running backs start to hit the wall at about 2,000 carries.  If a running back is 30-years old and has 2,000 career carries, it is a red flag to me that a decline could be on the horizon.

Wide receivers and tight ends are the hardest position to figure out.  They do not start to peak as early as running backs, because the NFL passing game usually takes at least a season if not two seasons to adjust to the NFL system.  Similar to quarterbacks, the peak years usually start at around 25-years old and can extend past 30-years old, but usually by 33-years old the years of NFL service start to catch up to players and the numbers will start to decline.  Rarely will you want a receiver over 35-years old, other than WR Jerry Rice, most players are not consistently putting up 1,000-yard seasons after their 35^th birthday.  A lot is going to depend on the quarterback; older receivers seem to be able to produce a few years beyond their prime if they have the right quarterback throwing them the football.

Here is a list of 10 players to keep an eye on this year, because either his age is a concern for decline or his age suggests that a peak year could be in store.

1. WR Randy Moss (New England Patriots), Age 33 – Receivers tend to start declining around the age of 32 and if you look at how Moss closed the 2010 season, there has to be concern whether he is going to be a dominant receiver in 2010.  From Week 11 to Week 17 he had just 25 receptions for 373 yards and six touchdowns, three of which came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their 27^th ranked pass defense. He is a definite candidate to be a declining player based on his age, NFL trends at the receiver position and his declining production to close the 2009 season.  I think with QB Tom Brady running the offense he will still be a top ten receiver, but I do not think he will finish with double digit touchdowns as his declining skills will make it slightly easier to defend him in the red zone and on deeper pass patterns.

2. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens), Age 25 – This player that has all the makings of a breakout season statistically.  He is 25-years old, which is the age where quarterbacks finally start to enter their statistical peak and while history shows that 2010 will not be his best season as a pro, there have been many quarterbacks who have had their first big season in their third year. Quarterbacks that finished in the Top 10 in fantasy points for the first time in their career as a third year player include the following:  Brady, Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers, and Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo. While some of those quarterbacks did not start the first game of their rookie year like Flacco, a third year is a big year for quarterbacks.  With the signing of WR Anquan Boldin and two years in the same NFL offense, 2010 has the makings of a breakout year for Flacco.

3. RB Felix Jones (Dallas Cowboys), Age 23 – Running backs can usually have success very early in their career and Jones is playing on a loaded offense and is expected to be a starter for the first time in 2010.  At 23-years old, he should be primed for a breakout season, provided the Cowboys give him the carries to be successful.  He is averaging 6.5 yards per carry for his career and in the final regular season game and two playoff games when he saw significant playing time, he had 45 carries for 308 yards and two rushing touchdowns.

4. QB Donovan McNabb (Washington Redskins), Age 33 – He will turn 34-years old in November and you have to think the Philadelphia Eagles were concerned about a declining year coming soon, otherwise why would they have traded their star quarterback to a division rival.  Other than 2008, the last time he started 16 games was 2003 and he is joining a team that is very short on skill position talent, with WR Santana Moss being their most explosive weapon.  He is a player that due to age concerns and a weak supporting cast could be declining in 2010.

5. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts), Age 31 – He turns 32-years old in November, which is putting the Colts in a bind, because Wayne wants a new deal, right at the age where receivers start to trend downwards.   The good news is that he plays with the four-time MVP, QB Peyton Manning, but look at his former teammate, WR Marvin Harrison as a roadmap of how quickly a player can decline.  Harrison was a Pro Bowler in 2006 at 34-years old with 95 receptions for 1,366 yards and 12 touchdowns and had two injury-plagued years after that.  I still expect Wayne to have a big year provided his contract dispute does not result in a lengthy training camp holdout.   Even though his age suggests he could be declining soon, playing with Manning will help him have a few more very productive years.

6. RB Shonn Greene (New York Jets), Age 24 – He is entering his second year in the NFL and will take his first crack as a starter with Thomas Jones now in Kansas City.  Greene had 54 carries for 304 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games last year, I expect him to have many dominant years to come in one of the best running games in the NFL.  He is 25-years old, which is a little late for a first breakout season, but with only one year of NFL experience under his belt, he has very little mileage on his NFL tires.

7. RB Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins), Age 28 – He turns 29-years old in September and after finishing 2008 with 1,487 yards rushing and nine touchdowns, he suffered injuries and in eight games had only 494 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown.  He has 2,176 career carries and is quickly approaching the 30-year mark, which is when running backs start breaking down.  He may have a rebound year in his future, but he is a very risky player that is clearly past his prime.

8. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons), Age 25 – This is the same situation as Flacco, Ryan is entering his third year as a NFL starter and with WR Roddy White, RB Michael Turner and TE Tony Gonzalez in this offense he has the potential to put up a monster season.  He had some inconsistency issues and some injury issues in his second year; those should be behind him as a third year starter in 2010.  Similar to Flacco, he should finish very close to the top 10 for fantasy points scored by a quarterback.

9. WR Hines Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers), Age 34 – Ward is one of those players that seem to be on the decline every year and ends up finishing with 80 receptions for 1,100 yards and six or seven touchdowns.  He is even a few years older than Wayne and is going to have to deal with at least a four game suspension from his starting QB, Ben Roethlisberger.  You have to wonder if this is the year he finally hits the wall in Pittsburgh or if he has another Pro Bowl caliber year in the tank.  Being a few years older than Wayne and not having the stability at the quarterback position that Wayne has is a cause for concern.

10. TE Jeremy Shockey (New Orleans Saints), Age 29 – He will be 30-years old in August and he has only started 23 of 32 games since going to New Orleans.  He was hospitalized after a May practice when it appeared that he had a seizure, but is reportedly okay and it should not affect him going forward.  He is starting to reach the point where you worry about health and he has been a medical issue for two years already.  Rarely do injured players become healthier in their 30s and this off-season is not off to a good start.