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These rankings are for seasonal/redraft leagues and will be the final rankings for the 2010 season.
1) Andre Johnson (Houston Texans) – My only fault is that I would like him to score more touchdowns. He only scored in six of his 16 games last year and has never reached 10 touchdowns in a single season.
While his totals were good enough to be No. 1 in yardage leagues, in touchdown-heavy leagues that can cause problems.
2) Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys) – He broke onto the fantasy scene in 2009 with 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. He should continue to be a force for a young offense that seems to be on the upswing. The only concern is last year is the first year we saw that production; you have to hope it can continue and is not a one-year fluke. On one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, that should not be the case.
3) Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) – As consistent of a wide receiver as you will find. You can depend on him for 90 catches, 1,200 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns every season. The only concern is that he turns 32 years old this year. Playing with a future Hall of Famer like QB Peyton Manning makes that concern a very small one.
4) Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons) – Some people labeled 2009 a disappointment, but he still had 85 receptions for 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns, good enough to be ranked the seventh best fantasy receiver. If QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner can stay healthy the whole year, it should help with White's consistency and help him produce bigger numbers in 2010.
5) Randy Moss (New England Patriots) – I did not like how last season ended: no 100-yard games in his last seven, and six of seven games with either one touchdown or none. Something seemed wrong in New England at the end of the year, and you hope it does not carry over to next year. Moss turns 33 years old this year too, so age is not on his side. He has too much talent and QB Tom Brady is too good for him not to be a No. 1 receiver, but I do not think he is worth a first or high second round pick this year. He just will not separate himself from the pack enough to warrant that high of a selection.
6) DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles) – He set a record with eight 50-yard touchdown plays last season and had 1,167 yards receiving and 12 receiving, rushing and punt return touchdowns. Having unproven QB Kevin Kolb there is a little concerning, but he has been in the system for three years and has looked very solid in camp. Jackson makes a lot of plays with his speed and ability; he should be fine even if Kolb struggles making the transition.
7) Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions) – Don’t give up on him after one subpar year; he still had 984 yards and five receiving touchdowns despite playing with a rookie quarterback for most of the year and missing a couple of games with injury while being limited in several others. This is still the most physically gifted receiver in the NFL. With QB Matthew Stafford entering his second year, things should improve.
8) Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) – Fitzgerald is consistently a 10-plus-touchdown player, but the majority of his success has been with QB Kurt Warner throwing him the ball. Even though I am not sure QB Derek Anderson can help the Cardinals win the NFC West, I think he is better for Fitzgerald’s fantasy value than QB Matt Leinart, whose weakness was the deep passing game. Expect Fitzgerald to have a strong year, but also expect his production to be more volatile, depending on how his inconsistent quarterback is performing.
9) Brandon Marshall (Miami Dolphins) – He had 1,120 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2009, and he has now finally escaped Denver and has his long-term deal. Miami has its young quarterback in Chad Henne to throw him the ball. If Marshall keeps a positive attitude, big things could be in store in 2010.
10) Greg Jennings (Green Bay Packers) – The yardage was not bad at 1,113 yards, but he had only four receiving touchdowns after having 21 touchdowns in 2007 and 2008. He is still a great talent that has one of the best fantasy quarterbacks throwing him the ball. I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt that 2009 was just an off year and not a sign of things to come. QB Aaron Rodgers is a very solid quarterback, and Jennings should bounce back in 2010. A healthy and effective offensive line would really help Jennings be more effective in his strong suit, the deep passing game.
11) Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) – I do not think he quite cracks the top 10, and he has had some health concerns in the past, but Boldin will be an excellent addition to this offense and should have a big season.
12) Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints) – The only problem is they spread the ball around so much that even though Colston is the No. 1 receiver, he only had 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns. Those are great numbers, but for a No. 1 receiver on that explosive of an offense, people expect more. Great No. 2 receiver, but not a No. 1 in fantasy leagues.
13) Chad Ochocinco (Cincinnati Bengals) – The Bengals' run-first offense hurt his numbers, but he was still solid with 72 receptions for 1,048 yards and nine touchdowns. He is 32 years old, which is a small reason for concern. WR Terrell Owens should take away some attention from the defense, even though Owens will be 37 years old. Ochocinco has the most weapons around him since 2005 or 2006.
14) Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) –Smith should improve on his 65 catches for 982 yards and seven touchdowns now that he does not have QB Jake Delhomme throwing him the ball. He is back at practice after his broken forearm caused him to miss most of camp. He should be ready to produce in the season opener.
15) Wes Welker (New England Patriots) – He has been practicing in training camp and even saw some game action. If he is playing preseason football he should be ready for Week One. It will probably take some time for him to regain his explosiveness, and WR Julian Edelman could split time with him as they ease him back into action, but as long as he stays healthy, I would expect another 100-reception, 1,000-yard season.
16) Steve Smith (New York Giants) – He had 107 receptions for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns, but he was almost too consistent. He had only four games over 80 yards but none less than 40 yards. You could count on him for 60 to 75 yards receiving; you would like to see some more 100-yard games. He also had only three touchdowns after Week Four. He is still not a No. 1 receiver but is a great No. 2 with upside, as he has only played three NFL seasons.
17) Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) – The second-year receiver recovered nicely from his holdout with 48 receptions for 625 yards and two touchdowns in only 11 games. He should play better with a full offseason and training camp.
18) Robert Meachem (New Orleans Saints) – Last year everyone thought WR Lance Moore would evolve into the other star receiver opposite Marques Colston, but Meachem had 45 receptions for 722 yards and nine touchdowns. He is entering Year Three, which is usually a breakout year for wide receivers.
19) Santana Moss (Washington Redskins) – This receiver has probably had the best offseason of any wide receiver. First, he has a new offensive-minded coach in Mike Shanahan that could revive his career. Second, former Pro Bowl QB Donovan McNabb is now the starter; Moss has not played with an established veteran quarterback since Mark Brunell fell out of favor a few years ago. Third, the Redskins upgraded the offensive line with rookie T Trent Williams and veteran T Jammal Brown. That will give McNabb time to find Moss in the deep passing game, which is Moss’ strength.
20) Percy Harvin (Minnesota Vikings) – With WR Sidney Rice gone for at least the first six games of the season, Harvin is going to be the player that Favre looks for the most in the passing game. The only concern with him is migraines, but the doctors think they have found the cause of the problem and are confident that they can minimize this problem that makes him scary for fantasy owners. Look for Harvin to have a big year and be the most consistent producer for the Vikings in their passing game.
21) Donald Driver (Green Bay Packers) – The consistent veteran had 70 receptions for 1,061 yards and six receiving touchdowns. The only concern is that he is 35 years old now. How much longer can he be a 1,000-yard receiver?
22) Derrick Mason (Baltimore Ravens) – He had 73 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns—just the model of consistency in the NFL. Age is his concern; he turned 36 years old in January. I actually like him better with Boldin there; he will be drawing the other team’s No. 2 cornerback instead of its best corner.
23) Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) – You could go with teammate WR Mario Manningham here too; they had very similar numbers last season. I like Nicks because he was a rookie and had six receiving touchdowns. I think Manningham is more of a possession receiver, which is also the role of Steve Smith. I think Nicks is going to be their home run hitter and has the potential for bigger numbers.
24) Mike Sims-Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars) – For people that complain about fantasy football destroying the fun of the game, tell them that without it people wouldn’t know of players like Sims-Walker. He plays in a very small and unnoticed Jacksonville market, but fantasy owners noticed him early on, and he had 869 yards and seven touchdowns. Fantasy football makes us all more well-rounded fans. He could contend for a 1,000-yard season as the undisputed No. 1 target with WR Torry Holt now a Patriot, although a Patriot on IR.
25) Hines Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers) – The ageless receiver had 95 receptions for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns; he is another of those veterans that is 34 years old but has shown no signs of slowing down. Unlike Santana Moss, he has had a terrible offseason. He has lost his other starting receiver in Santonio Holmes, who was traded to the Jets. His starting QB Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for the first six games. His starting tackle, Willie Colon, is out for the season. Veterans like Ward are able to adjust to negative developments, but I cannot foresee how all these losses do not lessen his production.
26) Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis Colts) – Give him some time. He played at Division III Mount Union, and 2009 was only his second year. He had 47 receptions for 765 yards and four touchdowns, and of all the young guys on their roster, I expect him to make the biggest step toward being that No. 2 receiver. He should emerge as Manning’s top target over the next couple of seasons, similar to what happened with Wayne when he emerged as the go-to guy over WR Marvin Harrison.
27) Terrell Owens (Cincinnati Bengals) – I like the situation he is in with veteran QB Carson Palmer throwing him the ball, and he should not receive a lot of double teams with Ochocinco on the other side. Keep in mind, this is a run-first offense, and I do not see the Bengals throwing the ball 50 times a game. Owens has a good chance to duplicate his numbers from last season, which put him at 27th last year. Last year the challenge was a poor quarterback; this year it is going to be the number of looks he sees. He has looked very good in the preseason, so his 37-year-old body is not as big of a concern as it would be with other players.
28) Johnny Knox (Chicago Bears) – He has clearly been the best route runner at Bears camp, and I am not afraid to admit I made a mistake. All offseason I thought WR Devin Aromashodu would emerge as their No. 1 receiver; I am switching that prediction to Knox, although I still think Aromashodu will have a productive year. Knox could be poised for a 1,000-yard season if the Bears’ offensive line can give QB Jay Cutler time to throw him the ball.
29) Malcom Floyd (San Diego Chargers) – I would be surprised if WR Vincent Jackson plays in San Diego this year before Week 10. The Chargers gave the Seattle Seahawks permission to talk to Jackson, and his asking price on a new contract was five years, $50 million, with $30 million guaranteed. He will never play another NFL game if he continues to hold out for that salary. This player clearly has overvalued himself. The Chargers are going with other players, and Floyd looks to be their No. 1 receiver. He had 45 receptions for 776 yards and one touchdown last year. Those numbers should improve if he is the top target, but keep in mind the Chargers also have TE Antonio Gates and RBs Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews in this offense. This is likely a year the Chargers do not have a big-play receiver in fantasy.
30) Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) – He was in the doghouse all of last year, and he has not made any strides to pull himself into good graces this year, thanks to his revelation that the Kansas City Chiefs "imported" women to San Diego for the players’ enjoyment. You have to wonder if he is even their No. 1 receiver this year or if that honor goes to Chris Chambers, who signed a three-year, $15 million contract back in March. Bowe had only 589 yards and four touchdowns but was a 1,000-yard receiver and good touchdown threat his first two years. I hope that new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis can help this talented but troubled receiver. I’ve bumped him up ten spots, because he has looked good in training camp, but I must say I am skeptical that he can stay in the coaching staff’s good graces.
31) Sidney Rice (Minnesota Vikings) – He was in my top five before this release, but that hip has not progressed very well, and now he has had hip surgery and will likely miss at least half of the season. This hip has been an issue all offseason, and why this was not addressed three months ago is puzzling. The good news for the Vikings is that they have an early bye in Week Four. If Rice can have a speedy recovery, it could be possible that he will be ready in Week Seven and play 11 games instead of 10 games if his bye was later in the year. Still, it makes him a big gamble on draft day.
32) Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles) – The Eagles are a pass-first team, and if this receiver can improve on his rookie year, he has the upside to be fantasy viable most weeks in 2010. Young quarterbacks tend to lock in a little too much on the first receiver; we will see if Kolb does that or if he will be able to involve both Jackson and Maclin. Maclin is going to break out in his third year with Kolb having a year in this offense; this is probably a year too early to rely on him as a No. 2 or 3 fantasy receiver.
33) Braylon Edwards (New York Jets) – He could be a good receiver; he just drops too many balls. He is locked up to a one-year, $6.1 million contract and really needs to be more consistent. Having WR Santonio Holmes on the other side may help him, but Holmes is suspended for the first four games of the season. The Jets are a run-first team, which also hurts his fantasy value.
34) Lee Evans (Buffalo Bills) – Every year we talk about this guy's talent, and every year we say he needs a better QB. The Bills still did not find him a quarterback, so he is going to struggle to play consistently.
35) Devin Aromashodu (Chicago Bears) – The Bears had no first or second round picks, and they do not seem to be in the market for a free-agent receiver. When Aromashodu came into the lineup, he became a star. He had 12 catches for 196 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. In training camp Knox has emerged as the best bet to become the top receiver, but I still like Aromashodu as a sleeper this year, and I think he could pan out as a below average No. 3 receiver depending on how well the offensive line blocks for Cutler.
36) Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh Steelers) – The impressive rookie had 756 yards receiving and six touchdowns. He was 27th among fantasy receivers as a rookie and will see more action in 2010. WR Santonio Holmes being traded to the New York Jets puts him on the field more. The problem is that with Roethlisberger suspended for the first four games, Wallace will not be seeing a lot of deep balls early in the season. He is also going to have problems seeing deep balls if the Steelers do not protect their quarterback, something that became problematic when Colon was lost for the season. Look for him to start the season slow and have a better second half, which is one reason I have him ranked down at the 36 spot.
37) Bernard Berrian (Minnesota Vikings) – The big winner in the Rice surgery is Berrian, who will now see a lot more balls thrown his way. Berrian and Favre never were on the same page last year because Berrian suffered an injury in training camp that cost him a lot of acclimation time once Favre arrived. Berrian has been healthy this year, and with Rice gone, he will have to play a much bigger role in the offense, making him worth a flyer as a third or fourth receiver. He will probably lose some value once Rice returns.
38) Santonio Holmes (New York Jets) – He faces a suspension for the first four games, but should form a nice tandem with Edwards once he comes back from suspension. It is also nice that the four games he is missing against the Ravens, Patriots, at Miami, and Buffalo. The Ravens and Bills were in the top 11 against receivers in 2009. I think he will have a major role in the Jets offense and will emerge as their best receiver in the second half of the season, but you are going to have to stock your team with depth so that you can survive the first month of the season without him.
39) Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland Browns) – I think I made a mistake having Joshua Cribbs up here most of the offseason and training camp; my expectation was that the Browns would start him at receiver given the contract extension they gave him. That did not pan out, as Cribbs is not listed as a starter. I think Cribbs is going to find touches, but not enough to warrant being owned in leagues other than ones that give points for return yardage. Massaquoi is listed as the number one receiver and the player you will want to won this year from the Browns weak passing game.
40) Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) – He was 39th in fantasy points playing for the Seahawks and their inconsistent passing game; he should be able to put up similar numbers playing in the Lions passing attack that often finds itself behind in games.
The Next 20
41) Mike Williams (Seattle Seahawks)
42) Jabar Gaffney (Denver Broncos)
43) Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys)
44) Steve Breaston (Arizona Cardinals)
45) Kenny Britt (Tennessee Titans)
46) Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
47) Chris Chambers (Kansas City Chiefs)
48) Greg Camarillo (Minnesota Vikings)
49) Laurent Robinson (St. Louis Rams)
50) Austin Collie (Indianapolis Colts)
51) Mario Manningham (New York Giants)
52) Kevin Walter (Houston Texans)
53) Jerricho Cotchery (New York Jets)
54) Devin Hester (Chicago Bears)
55) Davone Bess (Miami Dolphins)
56) James Jones (Green Bay Packers)
57) Jacoby Jones (Houston Texans)
58) Mark Clayton (St. Louis Rams)
59) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Baltimore Ravens)
60) Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks)
NR
Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers) – Holdout & Suspension
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) – Unclear foot injury that makes how many games he will play too unknown to rank
